Thursday, November 4, 2010
YOUNG GUNS TRADING
I'm proud to announce my new blog is now in full service and is looking GREAT - come join myself and the other traders at Young Guns Trading
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Major Change
Going to be some major changes to my blogging and trading life - as of right now I've spent the last month working and researching a new trading strategy using leveraged and inverse leveraged ETFs. I've practiced these strategies on and off in my swing trading account but I haven't focused on them as much as I will when I am testing this strategy.
As for this blog - it will be deceased shortly. I won't reveal the full details as to what I'm moving onto, but it is, indeed, bigger and better things.
Since the beginning, blogging, trading, and presenting ideas turned from a hobby into a passion. I will be teaming up with some very talented, young individuals to pave the way for a better community introducing new students to the market.
More details later...
As for this blog - it will be deceased shortly. I won't reveal the full details as to what I'm moving onto, but it is, indeed, bigger and better things.
Since the beginning, blogging, trading, and presenting ideas turned from a hobby into a passion. I will be teaming up with some very talented, young individuals to pave the way for a better community introducing new students to the market.
More details later...
Thursday, September 16, 2010
GIRL GIMME THAT
I yell this at my chart screens everyday before I wake up. Every time I do so, I profit. That's my trading secret.
Not really. Update later.
On a side note, Gold feels all bubbly.
Not really. Update later.
On a side note, Gold feels all bubbly.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
SPY Levels September 14
Couple of things - I know it's been a while since I posted. Just extremely busy lately. Anyway, check this out:
RESISTANCE
There's a few levels I'm watching for the $SPY right now - 113.20 obviously as resistance - pretty much everyone and their mom is watching that price. I highly doubt, being this overbought, that we can just bust through this level.
If we reach this tomorrow I'll probably load up short via ETF's (probably $TZA, maybe $QID or $SPXU) but that doesn't mean I'm expecting us to get obliterated.
SUPPORT
111.40 would be a gap fill from the other day, and 111.20 would be the 200 MA - both look great as support. After that, I'm looking at 110.10 as previous resistance and prior support of the downward wedge we broke out of. A consolidation on any of these levels with stochastics pulled back to a less overbought condition would look very bullish.
RESISTANCE
There's a few levels I'm watching for the $SPY right now - 113.20 obviously as resistance - pretty much everyone and their mom is watching that price. I highly doubt, being this overbought, that we can just bust through this level.
If we reach this tomorrow I'll probably load up short via ETF's (probably $TZA, maybe $QID or $SPXU) but that doesn't mean I'm expecting us to get obliterated.
SUPPORT
111.40 would be a gap fill from the other day, and 111.20 would be the 200 MA - both look great as support. After that, I'm looking at 110.10 as previous resistance and prior support of the downward wedge we broke out of. A consolidation on any of these levels with stochastics pulled back to a less overbought condition would look very bullish.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
August Recap
Started off the month with consecutive losses - I finally got caught in the choppiness. It's ok though - made several VERY profitable trades late in the month (SA, SFSF, LRCX) with full positions that allowed me to end the month positive roughly +4%.
Today we got a little rally - I expect there's not much movement because of the nonfarm payrolls coming out tomorrow - which I'm going to expect the unexpected and assume it will be better than expected.
I'm trying to find some long setups right now that haven't already run - not having much luck at the moment. Nothing a SCREAMING buy as of last night - I made a trade out of boredom it almost seems today and partly regret it - in $BRCD. If we get a pop in the market tomorrow I still think this will run - it's trying to break out of a big channel.
More later...
30/
Out $SFSF 21.50 (+1.43)
25/
Covered $TPX 26.72 (-.38)
14/
Out $SA 26.63 (+.78)
Out $TXN 24.20 (-.42)
13/
Out $SPXU 32.87 (+.34)
11/
Out $LRCX 41.26 (+.53)
Out $YUM 42.24 (-.66)
4/
Out $PEET 41.45 (-.70)
3/
Out $HOV 4.50 (-.11)
Out $RCL 29.29 (-.66)
Today we got a little rally - I expect there's not much movement because of the nonfarm payrolls coming out tomorrow - which I'm going to expect the unexpected and assume it will be better than expected.
I'm trying to find some long setups right now that haven't already run - not having much luck at the moment. Nothing a SCREAMING buy as of last night - I made a trade out of boredom it almost seems today and partly regret it - in $BRCD. If we get a pop in the market tomorrow I still think this will run - it's trying to break out of a big channel.
More later...
30/
Out $SFSF 21.50 (+1.43)
25/
Covered $TPX 26.72 (-.38)
14/
Out $SA 26.63 (+.78)
Out $TXN 24.20 (-.42)
13/
Out $SPXU 32.87 (+.34)
11/
Out $LRCX 41.26 (+.53)
Out $YUM 42.24 (-.66)
4/
Out $PEET 41.45 (-.70)
3/
Out $HOV 4.50 (-.11)
Out $RCL 29.29 (-.66)
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Don't Do Anything Dramatic
Today is just consolidation until tomorrow's numbers - several names I want to get long into a bounce ($SFSF, $MSCC, $RYL, $RAX) and a few more.
More on this later.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Lesson Learning Day
I'll be the first to say - I did not get the full benefit from this run. This is partly because I was not at the desk, running errands and whatnot.
Originally I planned this as a short day trade - and really had no idea that it would run this hard because of the market choppiness.
I ended up selling it around 26.63 for a .78 per share gain - but definitely should've held it to the day's end where it closed at 28.
There are several lessons to be learned from this - some of which I used to my advantage and executed with perfection. The other, being the most important one, is the reason why I'm posting this.
First, lets take a look at the 30 minute chart:
I saw weakness around 1:00 p.m. so I stopped myself out - it had already passed my short day trade target of 26.35 (previous highs) and I felt as though I would be greedy to not take profits. Ultimately - I don't regret taking profits simply because I did execute my plan.
However - what is to be learned is something I practiced, but did not capitalize on. It is something that @ZMoose12 talked about in a video recap of Russell 2k futures I believe, where he said (and I think he was quoting someone else... but oh well) "Trade your plan but keep your mind open".
If you will look back to my older blog post I talked about this being a short possibility - and look where it ended up. 10%+ gain on a choppy, boring, Monday.
It started this morning as I was watching it at the open ripping higher on above average volume - bought in, placed stop - watched it run. This is why on flags like this I have alerts on b/o price levels and break DOWN price levels. This way you can go either way.
The other lesson to be learned from this is to LET YOUR WINNERS RUN. Move stops up - but not so high as to hurt yourself. This was my mistake today. I should've placed my stop at my original target (which is what I advised on twitter to others) - but it's funny how we don't take our own advice sometimes, isn't it? ;)
Daily chart:
Good luck tomorrow everyone. I'll be hunting weakness.
Originally I planned this as a short day trade - and really had no idea that it would run this hard because of the market choppiness.
I ended up selling it around 26.63 for a .78 per share gain - but definitely should've held it to the day's end where it closed at 28.
There are several lessons to be learned from this - some of which I used to my advantage and executed with perfection. The other, being the most important one, is the reason why I'm posting this.
First, lets take a look at the 30 minute chart:
I saw weakness around 1:00 p.m. so I stopped myself out - it had already passed my short day trade target of 26.35 (previous highs) and I felt as though I would be greedy to not take profits. Ultimately - I don't regret taking profits simply because I did execute my plan.
However - what is to be learned is something I practiced, but did not capitalize on. It is something that @ZMoose12 talked about in a video recap of Russell 2k futures I believe, where he said (and I think he was quoting someone else... but oh well) "Trade your plan but keep your mind open".
If you will look back to my older blog post I talked about this being a short possibility - and look where it ended up. 10%+ gain on a choppy, boring, Monday.
It started this morning as I was watching it at the open ripping higher on above average volume - bought in, placed stop - watched it run. This is why on flags like this I have alerts on b/o price levels and break DOWN price levels. This way you can go either way.
The other lesson to be learned from this is to LET YOUR WINNERS RUN. Move stops up - but not so high as to hurt yourself. This was my mistake today. I should've placed my stop at my original target (which is what I advised on twitter to others) - but it's funny how we don't take our own advice sometimes, isn't it? ;)
Daily chart:
Good luck tomorrow everyone. I'll be hunting weakness.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
SPY Monthly 20 EMA and 20 MA
Ever since chessNwine posted a chart about the MONTHLY 20 ma on the SPY and its relation to market direction I've taken a bigger interest in looking into a little more.
So after he posted it - I noticed the following things:
1) BIG PICTURE - A reversal occurs when both the MONTHLY 20 EMA and the 20 MA change direction (for example, January it is 96.75 and February it is 96.32) and diverge (meaning they pull apart from one another) - one thing I WILL note - this is the biggest divergence we've ever seen between these two averages. What does that mean? I believe it means a BIG move is coming.
2) FIRST INSTANCES - Here both remain positive and do not diverge, thus, trend maintains POSITIVE. There is NO negative change in either of the moving averages despite pullbacks, and both are basically holding tightly to one another.
3) FIRST CHANGES OF DIRECTION - The upward trend comes to an end by the divergence in the 20 ema and 20 ma and a negative turn in both moving averages. Then, the bear market ends by a positive number in both and another divergence.
4) ANOTHER COD - The 20 MA lags more, but when both turn negative and diverge from one another, a reversal occurs. The divergence does not have to be huge between the moving average.
5) WHAT NEXT? - Not ONCE in 20 years have these gone in one direction one month and changed the next (for example January -101.62 February - 100.85 March - 101.49) if they change their direction they have STAYED that way, so far for a minimum of 2 years.
More often than not, I shy away from discussions of technical long term market movements because frankly it's hard to establish patterns when there is, naturally, so little data to sample from.
On daily charts you have a plethora of information and patterns available, backtested hundreds of times across all kinds of markets and stocks - but with ONE chart of the S&P 500 and only 20 years to play with, it is difficult for me to even talk about these things.
However, I AM a technical trader, it is my JOB and PASSION to find these patterns and to capitalize on them. So, what do I think of these?
I think you can use this information to decide if you believe this will continue. Afterall, it takes a whole MONTH for each of these to develop. The moving averages do NOT matter until the close. As of today, (08/15/2010) the 20 MA and 20 EMA remain positive - like I said, not ONCE in 20 years have BOTH of these gone negative to positive or positive to negative within a month. Sometimes the 20 EMA does, but the 20 MA does not follow.
Will these next few months go down and change the pattern from the last 20 years? Or will it maintain the same thing that has been going on? Keep in mind markets CHANGE - as does everything. Those that do not adapt do NOT survive (don't believe me? Watch this: FLOORED) - keep this in mind when you see this, and with what happens in the coming months.
So after he posted it - I noticed the following things:
1) BIG PICTURE - A reversal occurs when both the MONTHLY 20 EMA and the 20 MA change direction (for example, January it is 96.75 and February it is 96.32) and diverge (meaning they pull apart from one another) - one thing I WILL note - this is the biggest divergence we've ever seen between these two averages. What does that mean? I believe it means a BIG move is coming.
2) FIRST INSTANCES - Here both remain positive and do not diverge, thus, trend maintains POSITIVE. There is NO negative change in either of the moving averages despite pullbacks, and both are basically holding tightly to one another.
3) FIRST CHANGES OF DIRECTION - The upward trend comes to an end by the divergence in the 20 ema and 20 ma and a negative turn in both moving averages. Then, the bear market ends by a positive number in both and another divergence.
4) ANOTHER COD - The 20 MA lags more, but when both turn negative and diverge from one another, a reversal occurs. The divergence does not have to be huge between the moving average.
5) WHAT NEXT? - Not ONCE in 20 years have these gone in one direction one month and changed the next (for example January -101.62 February - 100.85 March - 101.49) if they change their direction they have STAYED that way, so far for a minimum of 2 years.
More often than not, I shy away from discussions of technical long term market movements because frankly it's hard to establish patterns when there is, naturally, so little data to sample from.
On daily charts you have a plethora of information and patterns available, backtested hundreds of times across all kinds of markets and stocks - but with ONE chart of the S&P 500 and only 20 years to play with, it is difficult for me to even talk about these things.
However, I AM a technical trader, it is my JOB and PASSION to find these patterns and to capitalize on them. So, what do I think of these?
I think you can use this information to decide if you believe this will continue. Afterall, it takes a whole MONTH for each of these to develop. The moving averages do NOT matter until the close. As of today, (08/15/2010) the 20 MA and 20 EMA remain positive - like I said, not ONCE in 20 years have BOTH of these gone negative to positive or positive to negative within a month. Sometimes the 20 EMA does, but the 20 MA does not follow.
Will these next few months go down and change the pattern from the last 20 years? Or will it maintain the same thing that has been going on? Keep in mind markets CHANGE - as does everything. Those that do not adapt do NOT survive (don't believe me? Watch this: FLOORED) - keep this in mind when you see this, and with what happens in the coming months.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
PRACTICE.
These last few months have just been practice. I'm practicing for out of summer volume. I'm bored of these summer markets. Every day I'm itching to get out of the office and do something productive.
We talkin bout PRACTICE?
I think here we're gonna probably consolidate a bit - probably the rest of the week. More than likely I'll stay cash. As I report this futures are down 3 points - and I don't expect them to move too much. On the $SPY chart above we're sitting right on the 200 ema, in fact, took a little bounce off it today - but not a positive one.
Before open tomorrow we have Initial Jobless Claims - if the reaction comes out super negative (which wouldn't really surprise me) I like these names short:
SA - flagging after a steep selloff, expecting this to drop much lower on weakness.
MDC - Approaching a triple bottom, watch for a big dip if this loses 25.85.
URBN - the 200 ema is tough resistance, however I think what I find interested is this could be a potential inverted head and shoulders if it can hold the lows of the day today - it would fill the gap and then look for a b/o higher. However, I think this will ultimately fail and will go lower.
SQNM - I was hoping this would hold so I could take this long for a potential gap fill. But today it closed below the support trend - if tomorrow we dip, I'll be looking at this one as well.
We talkin bout PRACTICE?
I think here we're gonna probably consolidate a bit - probably the rest of the week. More than likely I'll stay cash. As I report this futures are down 3 points - and I don't expect them to move too much. On the $SPY chart above we're sitting right on the 200 ema, in fact, took a little bounce off it today - but not a positive one.
Before open tomorrow we have Initial Jobless Claims - if the reaction comes out super negative (which wouldn't really surprise me) I like these names short:
SA - flagging after a steep selloff, expecting this to drop much lower on weakness.
MDC - Approaching a triple bottom, watch for a big dip if this loses 25.85.
URBN - the 200 ema is tough resistance, however I think what I find interested is this could be a potential inverted head and shoulders if it can hold the lows of the day today - it would fill the gap and then look for a b/o higher. However, I think this will ultimately fail and will go lower.
SQNM - I was hoping this would hold so I could take this long for a potential gap fill. But today it closed below the support trend - if tomorrow we dip, I'll be looking at this one as well.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Comeback Time
Shortly after I took a small loss in $PEET at 41.45 (now trading at 36.90) I posted this on twitter around 9:30 on the 3rd:
"Make no mistake - that gap WILL be filled in the next several days. Don't get caught overexposed long. $SPY $$"
Got exactly what I was looking for - now I believe we can continue a move up to at least a retest of the 113 area on the $SPY. If you're long, watch this gap still and use it as support.
Couple of setups I'm watching:
CRS - I'd like to see it pullback to the 200 ema for a buy, but if it doesn't, look for a b/o. I'd rather buy the pullback after the break, but that's how I trade breakouts on stocks I haven't traded before.
SBGI - This is another one I'm probably going to play cautious, however, if this thing starts ripping Monday morning over 7.05 I might load up. I'd rather see it pullback to the trendline, though, but the way this is looking, it may not want to.
Happy trading this week.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
July Recap
Simply win this month
29/
Out $SPXU 30.88 (+.30)
27/
Out $PTRY 16.43 (+1.19)
26/
Out $SO 35.93 (+.21)
23/
Out $AIV 21.07 (-.21)
22/
Out $SWKS 17.68 (+.30)
8/
Out $AIV 19.79 (+1.15)
Out $LEN 14.50 (+.36)
Out $RYL 16.84 (+.38)
1/
Covered $CSCO 21.30 (-.08)
Out $SVR 20.42 (+.11)
29/
Out $SPXU 30.88 (+.30)
27/
Out $PTRY 16.43 (+1.19)
26/
Out $SO 35.93 (+.21)
23/
Out $AIV 21.07 (-.21)
22/
Out $SWKS 17.68 (+.30)
8/
Out $AIV 19.79 (+1.15)
Out $LEN 14.50 (+.36)
Out $RYL 16.84 (+.38)
1/
Covered $CSCO 21.30 (-.08)
Out $SVR 20.42 (+.11)
Sunday, August 1, 2010
New PC
Long story short - I went to best buy on friday to grab a new monitor, then realized my mother board only had one PCI express slot (old, I know). And if you don't know what that is, well, I didn't either a few minutes before I found this out.
Basically, I was going to have to buy a new computer. So my bill went from $300 for the monitor to a little above a grand for everything else. My girl tells me I'm an impulsive spender. Clearly, she is incorrect.
Clearly.
This is the weekend's result:
And of course a little partying on the side
Back to business -
I like HOV a lot here on strength - watch it if it has trouble with the 200 ema, though. I'm not a big fan of buying below moving averages - so make sure you stay careful in chop city, and keep a lot of cash. Cause cash is cool.
If you do decide to go long, I believe off the upper channel line would be a good opportunity, definitely wait for confirmation but I'll most likely be buying. The SPY thus far has reacted according to plan the last several days, so I'm looking for follow through and a bounce.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Laughing Straight to the Bank
Took some profits in $SPXU looking for the gap fill on the $SPY this morning - exact same situation as Monday, even though jobless claims weren't absolutely terrible.
If I was you - I would hold my cash. Like the teddy bear you used to have 30 years ago (or may still have). Clutch the life out of it, because it isn't going to leave when it's not in the market.
On a side note, I can't stop having technical difficulties. Right now on my thinkorswim intraday chart, it says that $HALO is only 10 minutes into the day. It's 11 a.m. EST.
If I was you - I would hold my cash. Like the teddy bear you used to have 30 years ago (or may still have). Clutch the life out of it, because it isn't going to leave when it's not in the market.
On a side note, I can't stop having technical difficulties. Right now on my thinkorswim intraday chart, it says that $HALO is only 10 minutes into the day. It's 11 a.m. EST.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Just Do What You Do
...and I'll do what I do.
So this week I'll be looking at last week's breakouts for pullbacks, because that's what I love to pick, and if you learned anything by reading my last post - these strategies tend to work very well.
Also, if you put 1+1 together, I'm actually expecting a pullback on the $SPX/$SPY - I don't think it will be a serious one, although, who knows. But anyone with a McClellalallalalallaan Oscillator will tell you we are severely overbought. Hopefully we just get some sideways action for the rest of the week and then another hard rally. Check out this $XLF chart: HERE
If you enjoy these setups and don't follow me on Twitter - you're wasting your time here. You can probably tell I don't care too much to post on this blog unless I'm blabbing on about something pointless or life related. I am going to attempt to break this tendency, but, nothing is promised.
Until then, here's a couple charts, I like all of these on a pullback to their breakout trend.
Biggest recent win - PTRY
LATEST Original Post, July 24th
Win.
So this week I'll be looking at last week's breakouts for pullbacks, because that's what I love to pick, and if you learned anything by reading my last post - these strategies tend to work very well.
Also, if you put 1+1 together, I'm actually expecting a pullback on the $SPX/$SPY - I don't think it will be a serious one, although, who knows. But anyone with a McClellalallalalallaan Oscillator will tell you we are severely overbought. Hopefully we just get some sideways action for the rest of the week and then another hard rally. Check out this $XLF chart: HERE
If you enjoy these setups and don't follow me on Twitter - you're wasting your time here. You can probably tell I don't care too much to post on this blog unless I'm blabbing on about something pointless or life related. I am going to attempt to break this tendency, but, nothing is promised.
Until then, here's a couple charts, I like all of these on a pullback to their breakout trend.
Biggest recent win - PTRY
LATEST Original Post, July 24th
Win.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Trade Reviews
Some that read this that know me personally may know that this month has been EXTREMELY busy for me - finishing up my real estate classes (finished today, actually), moving into my new house (which I still haven't fully moved into), transferring to a new school, etc etc etc.
This doesn't mean I didn't have time to post some HIGH QUALITY setups the last couple of weeks. It does mean, however, that I wasn't in front of my desk trading. I'm not a big fan of having buy stops, etc. I need to FEEL the market, and if I can't be at my desk at the time a big trade is executed, I don't want any part of it.
I took a few trades today and yesterday during a couple of my classes just due to the fact that I knew we were ripping. Both were small profits to book, nothing extreme, mainly how this entire month has been.
What I want to do in this post is show exactly how these setups I use work, and what the results are when you follow your trade to the T.
Normally, I would've taken full advantage of these rips like I have been doing all year - but, like I said on Twitter, I never fret about missed opportunities because there are ALWAYS others: which I will be posting later tonight.
To start, let me also post where I think we're at on the S&P 500:
SPY
This push against upper resistance looks weaker than I expected - with the selloff late in the day today it killed any potential rip in the last half hour. Thus far, we've had a great earnings season - based on technicals, I believe we CAN break through this resistance, however, I honestly hope that we don't.
What would be the perfect scenario for me would be to see us come back down to the 104 area on the $SPY, and then bounce. This would create a lower high, and also form an inverted head and shoulders pattern, one of my favorite patterns, as shown below.
For myself and for you - these are some of the best trade records I've posted the last few weeks, in no particular order, and as always, follow me on Twitter to get these setups when I find them:
SVR: Original Post
FCFS: Original Post
BHI: Original Post
AIV: Original Post
SO: Original Post
Monday, July 12, 2010
Wallstreet Pokemon Cards
I was speaking with @SellPuts on twitter earlier today and he said, basically, what is going on right now intraday on the $SPY -
"its like "hey buddy im at 107.48, nice ill take 100k.. then you hid my bid at 107.50 then ill take your offer at 107.51!""
Sadly, annoyingly, seemingly true statement.
Price action intraday is about as slow and boring as it gets
One great post, however, which I highly recommend you follow and read is @ChessNWine's post on his blog @ibankcoin - Violent Rejection
He brings up the best possible situation for the conservative and safe trader at this point in this indecisive market - look for a higher low from a pullback on the $SPY. I agree with it being the best possible scenario for the bulls.
Good luck.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Good Read
"Sell Short" by Michael Shulman is a great way to get into shorting the markets. With all this fear running around it's important to understand that you don't want to get caught overexposing yourself to the long side, and this book explains in great detail to either the newer trader or the experienced a different approach of selling short.
Shulman is convinced that options are a much better way to make income in the "dark side" of trading, as he calls it. His strategy is basic fundamentals accompanied by technicals and other non-complicated, common knowledge, and in some cases some very light quantitative analysis (which he uses through surveys of businesses).
Shulman uses options as a way to bank coin from overvalued or in danger stocks. As everyone pretty knows, stock prices (many times) drop MUCH more rapidly on bad news than they go up on good news, simply because of human fear. His explanations of things steer away from complicated jargon that may confuse new investors and works great if this is your first look into trying to get short. He also has a chapter on selling short without buying puts, etc. for the investor not looking to use options.
Whether or not you choose to profit from getting short, or if for some reason you ACTUALLY still "buy and hold", this book can be a great read as a way to diversify your ways of hedging your bets long.
Check it out, definitely worth a read. Recommend buying, but for you cheap pikers, here is a free copy: Sell Short by Michael Shulman
Shulman is convinced that options are a much better way to make income in the "dark side" of trading, as he calls it. His strategy is basic fundamentals accompanied by technicals and other non-complicated, common knowledge, and in some cases some very light quantitative analysis (which he uses through surveys of businesses).
Shulman uses options as a way to bank coin from overvalued or in danger stocks. As everyone pretty knows, stock prices (many times) drop MUCH more rapidly on bad news than they go up on good news, simply because of human fear. His explanations of things steer away from complicated jargon that may confuse new investors and works great if this is your first look into trying to get short. He also has a chapter on selling short without buying puts, etc. for the investor not looking to use options.
Whether or not you choose to profit from getting short, or if for some reason you ACTUALLY still "buy and hold", this book can be a great read as a way to diversify your ways of hedging your bets long.
Check it out, definitely worth a read. Recommend buying, but for you cheap pikers, here is a free copy: Sell Short by Michael Shulman
Friday, July 2, 2010
June Recap
Yeah - seriously barely any trades this month. The choppiness got to me and I avoided it like the plague. I'm still managing to get chopped up, though, this month (July) and am simply waiting for this "Death Cross" bs to pass.
You have to keep in mind that when something is so popularly announced, you must take it with a CARTON of salt.
Waiting for a bounce - then going long several names which I'll post later.
Realtime buys on Twitter
22/
Out $SPY 111.30 (+.13)
11/
Out $LII 44.03 (+.72)
Out $SPY 108.77 (-.24)
10/
Covered $SPY 108.71 (-.05)
Out $SPY 108.85 (+.26)
Out $SPY 108.42 (+.21)
07/
Out $TOL 19.40 (-.60)
03/
Out $SPY 110.01 (+.26)
You have to keep in mind that when something is so popularly announced, you must take it with a CARTON of salt.
Waiting for a bounce - then going long several names which I'll post later.
Realtime buys on Twitter
22/
Out $SPY 111.30 (+.13)
11/
Out $LII 44.03 (+.72)
Out $SPY 108.77 (-.24)
10/
Covered $SPY 108.71 (-.05)
Out $SPY 108.85 (+.26)
Out $SPY 108.42 (+.21)
07/
Out $TOL 19.40 (-.60)
03/
Out $SPY 110.01 (+.26)
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
TEAM USA
Hate on haters. And big ups to those that haven't been whining about the goals that keep getting taken back. This World Cup has been looking like boxing in the Olympics - it's been THAT BAD.
Very proud of my country. I love this nation.
... but I still can't forget my Germans. My mom still walks around her house in a Ballack jersey. LOL.
Very proud of my country. I love this nation.
... but I still can't forget my Germans. My mom still walks around her house in a Ballack jersey. LOL.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
I'm About Whatever, Man
I have been out spending and spending and spending profits - buying stupid things because I've been making stupid money, but not from this market. I have been pretty much all cash for what seems like forever.
The PPT is responsible for this market. The end.
One thing I do know, is that more sideways movement = setting up for a bigger move. Whether that be up or down I'm biased up - not for any particular reason, just because.
EDIT: Changed my mind a lot - after today's close, which makes the previous chart I had look like a dinosaur, there will probably be short term further downside. Just ugly.
The PPT is responsible for this market. The end.
One thing I do know, is that more sideways movement = setting up for a bigger move. Whether that be up or down I'm biased up - not for any particular reason, just because.
EDIT: Changed my mind a lot - after today's close, which makes the previous chart I had look like a dinosaur, there will probably be short term further downside. Just ugly.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
This Market
Is this Tiger
DONT BLINK
EDIT: On a side note, $CLWR looks broken - don't even bother long right now.
DONT BLINK
EDIT: On a side note, $CLWR looks broken - don't even bother long right now.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Clearwire 4G and Wimax Network
Clearwire - Ticker $CLWR
I've been doing some research on this company - it first came to my attention with the release of the first 4G phone by HTC (the evo).
I understand that 4G is sort of a way to market hype for their product - as a matter of fact, it's not even technically as fast as T-Mobile's HPSA (SOURCE: PHONESCOOP), but this could be something that can grow. I'm not sure if I could call the BS trigger on this stock at this point - as you all know I honestly couldn't care less if this company made their 4G network work, I only care if they can make me money within the next month.
Chart:
The resistance at 8.59 goes out on the weekly chart - this company didn't have too much trouble in the fallout recently and has held up well in a down market.
I'm looking for a buy trigger around 7.80 off the trendline with a short stop around 7.55 below 23.6% fibonacci retracement, but honestly it's sketchy going long in this market.
I took some longs in $TOL friday and so far I've been molested because it is losing the trendline. If $XHB shows any more weakness I may, honestly, switch and short the hell out of it. This is a very difficult market right now, however, and swinging is gambling at this point. As of right now $XHB is holding the 200 ema support I'm looking for - so we will see if it holds.
Some basic info on $CLWR:
Data from shortsqueeze
Some statistical info about ascending triangles:
I've been doing some research on this company - it first came to my attention with the release of the first 4G phone by HTC (the evo).
I understand that 4G is sort of a way to market hype for their product - as a matter of fact, it's not even technically as fast as T-Mobile's HPSA (SOURCE: PHONESCOOP), but this could be something that can grow. I'm not sure if I could call the BS trigger on this stock at this point - as you all know I honestly couldn't care less if this company made their 4G network work, I only care if they can make me money within the next month.
Chart:
The resistance at 8.59 goes out on the weekly chart - this company didn't have too much trouble in the fallout recently and has held up well in a down market.
I'm looking for a buy trigger around 7.80 off the trendline with a short stop around 7.55 below 23.6% fibonacci retracement, but honestly it's sketchy going long in this market.
I took some longs in $TOL friday and so far I've been molested because it is losing the trendline. If $XHB shows any more weakness I may, honestly, switch and short the hell out of it. This is a very difficult market right now, however, and swinging is gambling at this point. As of right now $XHB is holding the 200 ema support I'm looking for - so we will see if it holds.
Some basic info on $CLWR:
| ||||||||||||||||||
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Some statistical info about ascending triangles:
Important Bull Market Results
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 17 out of 23; 9 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 13%; 11%
Average rise/decline: 35%; 19%
Throwback/pullback rate: 57%; 49%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 75%; 68%
SOURCE: Bulkowski's Blog
| Characteristic | Discussion |
| Price trend | Can be any direction leading to the chart pattern. |
| Shape | Triangular. Prices move between two converging trendlines. |
| Trendlines | Two trendlines bound prices; the top trendline is horizontal and the bottom one slopes upward. |
| Crossing | Price must cross the pattern from side to side, filling the triangle with price movement, not white space. |
| Touches | Price must touch each trendline at least twice, forming distinct valleys and peaks. |
| Volume | Trends downward 77% of the time. |
| Breakout | Upward 70% of the time and 61% of the way to the triangle apex (upward breakouts) and 62% of the way for downward breakouts. |
SOURCE: Bulkowski's Blog
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Live Oil Spill Feed
This is so pointless and boring to watch to me - but here you go.
Watch live streaming video from wkrg_oil_spill at livestream.com
Monday, May 31, 2010
May Recap
Not much trading going on this month, been relatively cautious. Still up a couple points on the month, but overall it could've been better - should've taken my oil shorts when I felt it but I've been too busy to glue my face to the monitor as it is - anyway, so far sell in may and go away has been exactly what I've been doing.
Realtime buys on Twitter
28/
Out $CSTR 55.06 (+.40)
25/
Out $TOL 21.05 (+.99)
Out $ORLY 49.15 (-.05)
Out $SPY 106.20 (+.65)
24/
Out $CLF 50.70 (-.77)
Out $DHI 12.30 (-.17)
12/
Covered $HAL 29.15 (-.01)
11/
Out $FAF 36.14 (+.29)
Out $TOL 22.94 (+.25)
4/
Out $DUK 16.85 (+.21)
Out $SCHW 18.95 (-.46)
3/
Out $SHLD 124.05 (+2.07)
Realtime buys on Twitter
28/
Out $CSTR 55.06 (+.40)
25/
Out $TOL 21.05 (+.99)
Out $ORLY 49.15 (-.05)
Out $SPY 106.20 (+.65)
24/
Out $CLF 50.70 (-.77)
Out $DHI 12.30 (-.17)
12/
Covered $HAL 29.15 (-.01)
11/
Out $FAF 36.14 (+.29)
Out $TOL 22.94 (+.25)
4/
Out $DUK 16.85 (+.21)
Out $SCHW 18.95 (-.46)
3/
Out $SHLD 124.05 (+2.07)
Sunday, May 23, 2010
I'm Back
...and feeling great. Except for my shoulders that are peeling like snake skin. Here's a couple pictures from the trip - had a great time:
I'll be back Monday doing some intraday trades, this market is still too slippery for swinging though for my tastes
My Condo View
Kid Millionaire Entourage
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Prodigy Voodoo People (Pendulum Remix) Video
Leaving in about 8 hours - figured I'd post something.
I retweeted a chart from stockrake that kinda gives his sentiment on charts and I noticed the same situation - took the words right out of my mouth.
There's a lot of charts setting up just like this one (all courtesy to Stockrake for this one):
DISNEY
For the next couple of weeks I'll be devising my traveling plans for this year - I've already decided I'm going to resorts in at least 5 domestic cities and 1 international - not really sure as to where, names on my list include Colorado, Las Vegas, Boston, New York, Chicago, Miami - internationally include too many possibilities to name, but I'll be updating as this continues.
Pictures will be posted as well as the new corporate office I'm moved into - might even have to kick up the youtube channel into posting mode. We will see where it goes, as for everyone else have a good weekend.
I retweeted a chart from stockrake that kinda gives his sentiment on charts and I noticed the same situation - took the words right out of my mouth.
There's a lot of charts setting up just like this one (all courtesy to Stockrake for this one):
DISNEY
For the next couple of weeks I'll be devising my traveling plans for this year - I've already decided I'm going to resorts in at least 5 domestic cities and 1 international - not really sure as to where, names on my list include Colorado, Las Vegas, Boston, New York, Chicago, Miami - internationally include too many possibilities to name, but I'll be updating as this continues.
Pictures will be posted as well as the new corporate office I'm moved into - might even have to kick up the youtube channel into posting mode. We will see where it goes, as for everyone else have a good weekend.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
LOSING MY MIND
About to lose my mind - haven't been trading at all lately. Contemplated going short today but got out quick - not trying to gamble against the ridiculousness that IS this market.
I may load up tomorrow on some $OIH sector shorts - I like $RIG below 65, $WFT below 15, and $SLB below 62.45 - but I doubt it, this market is strong enough to rocket back up. I've been so confused I've stayed cash, and it's paid off since I haven't had much time to intraday trade.
I may load up tomorrow on some $OIH sector shorts - I like $RIG below 65, $WFT below 15, and $SLB below 62.45 - but I doubt it, this market is strong enough to rocket back up. I've been so confused I've stayed cash, and it's paid off since I haven't had much time to intraday trade.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Paul Williams vs Kermit Cintron Video
Extremely bizarre ending in this highly anticipated fight - working on finding another video:
Thursday, May 6, 2010
LOLTODAY
Ok - so my take on today, which was awesome by the way. And I'm not completely upset I wasn't buying $VXX or going short or whatever - I have been cash for the last several days, mainly because this is not my market. I do not dump into stocks when I do not feel comfortable - that is the luxury of trading with my own money.
This whole thing was a long time coming... it's the reason I've been all cash for the last 3 or 4 days sitting in a sauna in Dallas watching crap go up for no reason and then dumping the hell out of it. Ok, maybe a fat finger assisted in the madness or something - but it doesn't matter whether you believe that or not - this just shows HOW FRAGILE this entire market is.
For historical purposes, I'm going to give a few links to the hell storm that happened today -
Links:
Wall Street Pit
Wall Street Journal
Tiger in Space
CNBC "Trader Error" Triggered this - LOL
Developing...
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Mockbuster Films
This is some of the funniest stuff I've seen in a while - I had a friend message me telling me on his Netflix he had a movie come up called "Paranormal Entity", supposedly a cheap imitation of "Paranormal Activity".
I did some research and found a plethora of hilariously titled films. These are a few of them:
It's as if to say "Snakes on a Plane" wasn't dumb enough of a name to begin with, they had to make it rhyme and dump out a straight to DVD "Snakes on a Train". Snakes on a train, in a normal circumstance, wouldn't even be a big deal. At least in an airplane you're trapped thousands of miles above ground - how bad could it possibly be on a train. Who even uses trains anymore its 2010.
What on earth could "Mega Shark vs. Giant Octopus" even be about from a glimpse? If you're a person, leave them the hell alone. They look like they're killing each other anyway, except for whoever the moron is that decided to sail over the middle of an epic underwater species battle. It's not like its Godzilla for Christ's sake - it's underwater.
And then there's "Jesus Christ: Vampire Hunter". LOL is all I have to say.
Monday, May 3, 2010
South Padre 16th - 20th
Had a nice profit day with $SHLD while I was at the King Sauna of Dallas today - nice to be sitting pretty making money, really is. Living the dream. Had hard stops in place so wasn't worried, sold at the top today right before it took a dive, couldn't have been better.
Realtime buys on my Twitter
This is where I'm gonna be this month 16th - 20th.
On a side note, Mayweather > all other suckers. It has recently dawned upon me that some Pacquiao fans want Mayweather to lose more than they want Pacquiao to win (if they do meet in the ring). Think about it - it's pathetic. If you're just a hater - you do that work, because that's an easy job.
I'm a big Pacquiao fan myself - I love his story, his relationship with Roach, everything about the guy down to his karaoke, but there isn't one fighter that I just straight up hate because of their personality. You're a loser if you're a hater. Period. No excuses. You probably lose all the time.
Realtime buys on my Twitter
This is where I'm gonna be this month 16th - 20th.
On a side note, Mayweather > all other suckers. It has recently dawned upon me that some Pacquiao fans want Mayweather to lose more than they want Pacquiao to win (if they do meet in the ring). Think about it - it's pathetic. If you're just a hater - you do that work, because that's an easy job.
I'm a big Pacquiao fan myself - I love his story, his relationship with Roach, everything about the guy down to his karaoke, but there isn't one fighter that I just straight up hate because of their personality. You're a loser if you're a hater. Period. No excuses. You probably lose all the time.
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